Some, in the Arab world, think that Israel is preparing for another war with Lebanon. Well, with Hezbollah more specifically, but Hezbollah operates from within Lebanese lands so… Hezbollah’s methods are not what the most Lebanese have in mind. Most of us do not condone Hezbollah’s violent methods of resistance. The Lebanese also know that civilians do not stand a chance against an old enemy who will bombard them indiscriminately in order to fight Hezbollah. Many civilians will die and Israel will never achieve its objective without resorting to genocide. Because the only way to stop a gorilla style enemy like Hezbollah, with violent means, would be to exterminate them all. And with the history of the Israeli people it would be unthinkable for them to resort to such a method openly nor would be an acceptable solution ever. Genocide has never achieved anything positive and never will.
This, however, does not mean Israel, the state (not the Jewish people and let’s make that distinction right now), is not capable of such a feet. With their advanced American funded military and their previous heavy handed record they are already engaged in a very slow form of genocide. It only takes one fanatic to send us all to hell. We Lebanese know this all too well because we have seen firsthand what extremism can do. With Lebanon’s sectarian constitution extremism is encouraged in all its forms to insure the balance of power between our many warring warlords, of all 18 recognized Lebanese religious sects, to keep their asses warm on that cushioned seat of power they covet so much.
The majority of Lebanese also know how ruthless the IDF is. They, the IDF, Have allowed the Sabra and Shatila massacre to happen right under their watchful eyes. Sure the massacre was carried out by a Lebanese extremist Christian group. But it did happen with the blessings of the Israeli defense force, this is a known fact. I don’t know how an offensive armed force can be called a “defense” force but that’s beside the point. Innocent unarmed women children and elderly where raped, tortured slaughtered, and mutilated by extremists under the watchful eyes of the Israeli Defense Force. And it is not the only such incident. There was the bombardment of a UN shelter at Qaana in 1996, the continuing destruction of Lebanese infrastructure every 3 years or so, there is the high number of civilian casualties as a result of the 2006 second Lebanon war and many, many more such examples.
I still have horrible memories of all these incidents but the one that I remember the most is the 1996 war. I remember seeing live footage of a car that was carrying a fleeing family being attacked by Israeli forces. A news team was close by, they got out to film the carnage and found, to everyone’s horror that a little girl was still alive inside the burning remains of the car. Her tear stained and seared childe face crying from the physical pain and the emotional pain that of realizing that all her family members where dead beside her. The car continued to burn and consume all that was within it.
I have also seen footage of the atrocities, of what everyone calls "terrorists" and suicide bombers, killing innocent Israeli children, women and elderly. Their pain is just as real as Noor who burned in that car. When I was young I was lead to believe that the innocent always survived. I was obviously too naive to know that the opposite is more true than not. I understand the need for resistance against an aggressor like the IDF but to kill innocent children, women and elderly indiscriminately goes far beyond resisting an invading enemy. There is no honor, only damnation, in killing an innocent unarmed human being. People who inflict pain, torture and death upon innocent civilians are, indeed, terrorists. Which is why I not only consider Hezbollah a "terrorist" organization but also the "IDF" and any other military or militia that derogatorily calls dead civilians as collateral damage. A Terrorist is anyone who fights dishonorably against a weaker and helpless opponent weather by crude gorilla style methods or by remote control superiority. Violence is unacceptable and anyone who resorts to violence against someone not his or her size then they are certainly terrorists in my opinion.... But I am detracting.
The Lebanese know also that Hezbollah is an extremist group. We have suffered at the hand of the only openly armed militia in Lebanon that has created a state within a state. An Uncontrollable entity made so courtesy of the Assad Syrian regime. Many Lebanese would like to see Hezbollah declawed. However, we have also suffered at the hands of the not so openly armed militias of the other group’s as well, those who claim to be pro west or pro east, they are all the same as Hezbollah and no one should ever doubt this for a minute.
Hezbollah, unfortunately, is the only force standing between the Lebanese and this army from the south that condones massacres and has superior American made and American funded weapons. Lebanon does not have the same luxury as Israel to invest billions of dollars in improving the Lebanese Army. Mostly because our corrupt politicians prefer to pocket the money. And again, as with any conflict, the real people who suffer are the innocent civilians who never wanted a war to begin with nor who want the corruption to continue but the way things are set up its just impossible to think of it differently… it’s just one of those mysteries that confound me as to how blind some of my Lebanese brothers and sisters can be. Which is not to say that all people are like that because I know some, or rather many who are like-minded as me…. More or less.
Lebanon is still feudal state in an uneasy balance as it is. The Lebanese people are not looking forward to yet another war with an indiscriminate Israel no matter how much Hassan Nasralah, secretary General of Hezbollah, is looking forward to a confrontation with Israel, if only to divert attention from his embattled Syrian ally Havez al Assad who cracking down on peaceful protesters of the Arab Spring who are demanding their right for peace and democracy.
Israel is on a leash at the moment because President Barak Obama is holding them back. This poor man of a president must have it really hard to discover that he cannot get anyone to listen to reason and everyone is either disappointed with him or outright hate him for one reason or the other. He inherited a massive mess from his extremist predecessor, but instead of blaming the economy crisis on the man who perpetuated it and the illegal war against Iraq and the mess he made of Afghanistan and Iraq, and the entire world for that matter. The blame instead is placed on America’s first ever black president as if everyone is collaborating to make him look bad and avoid having another black president for a long time. But that’s beside the point.
Israel has a strong lobby that is working hard to make life difficult and impossible for Obama as a way for Israel to bite back for being kept on a short leash. You see it’s a political game of misplaced egos. Meanwhile real people will die because no one wants a delicate ego of some very important prick to be bruised. So yes, innocent civilians will die instead.
There will be no trouble from Israel until after the 2012 US elections. They, the current Israeli government, is banking on a republican win, which would mean the money would continue to flow from US tax payers’ pockets to the Israeli government who will use the funds and military aid to conduct a very slow and invisible form of genocide. Unfortunately for the Israeli’s, Arabs tend to breed faster than they get killed. So the efforts of the Israeli government to “protect” its “security” with unprecedented violence and the funds and military aid flowing from US taxpayers to Israel would ideally be nothing more of a waste of resources and time and human souls on a pointless and violent Endeavor that without a doubt is bound to fail even if they achieve their goal of eliminating Hezbollah. Hezbollah being a gorilla resistance group will reform and still exist and still cause problems for Israel, the harder you pound Hezbollah the more likely they will grow in popularity and power.
If Obama gets reelected, however it will be a coup that will send ripples of change across the globe that would eventually bring to a resolution the Arab Israeli problem. For the mere fact that the US can no longer afford to keep funding a lost cause when the mater can, indeed, be resolved amicably. But Israel has a strong lobby in the US, even when there exists a portion of this lobby that is pro-peace and recognizes Netanyahu for the bigoted warmonger that he is. The Israeli lobby is very powerful and the extremist elements within it are allied with extremist elements of the American Republican party. The Israeli government wants the money to keep flowing from America, and the republicans want the Israeli Lobby’s support to bring down Obama at the next elections. This is not a conspiracy theory; it is clear as day in the news. All it takes is one fanatic to bring us to the brink as bush did and maybe worse.
A republican win will lead to the loosening of the Israeli leash and that will then plummet the region in to perpetual war that would benefit the weapon dealers while women, children, and elderly get slaughtered by those same weapons. Children orphaned by someone who made a profit over it. Hundreds of thousands will be displaced if not millions. All hopes for a tolerant Arab world post Arab spring revolts will vanish in favor of extremist elements. And the violence continues to flow as the money continues to flow from the US, as long as they can afford it. For the Israeli lobby has to be aware that if the American people are confronted with more economic problems because of a war they cannot sustain, it will eventually bring them to cut their budgets further and thus like the oil that we are running out of so will Israel run out of American aid and then it will be a disaster as the entire region erupt into an endless cycle of violence that will kill more innocent civilians. All because of Netanyahu’s ignorance, misguided hyper inflated ego, and his unwillingness to give peace a chance.
With Obama reelected, Netanyahu will lose all hope and be faced with no other choice but to comply and make peace. But that is not the only outcome since there still is the threat of Iran and its nuclear ambitions and it’s meddling in Lebanon and Syria. That alone presents a different set of problems that can bring us all closer to the brink than anything else.
But to get back on topic. No the Israelis will not attack pending the results of the US presidential elections of 2012.
This does not mean, however, that the Syrian regime will not order Hezbollah to cause problems which would provoke Israel into attacking Lebanon thus diverting attention from the Syrian regimes own massacre of its own people in an final attempt to extinguish the fire of the revolution of the Arab Spring protesters who want change and peace and an end to violence.
This time however Hezbollah will find itself fighting on more than one side as this time, because of Lebanon’s increasing sectarian mentality, perpetuated, by Lebanon’s war lords of March 14 and March 8, camps will lead to a new Lebanese civil war. And take it from someone who knows; There really is nothing civil about any kind of war.
Meanwhile more civilians will die.
This is what they call politics. And it is up to all peace loving people around the world to put pressure on their governments in order to end this cycle of stupidity once and for all. Everyone, Lebanese, Syrians, Palestinians, and Israelis, deserve to live in peace and free of dear and violence. May better heads prevail? I would hope so.
Disclaimer:
Of course, my analysis, though based on facts and history, should not be taken as expert advice. My analysis hinges on being accurate but I am not privy to the kind of information that would make it absolutely factual. So this is more the ramblings of a man stricken with grief and anger at the situation rather than a real journalistic article. This blog is an opinion, well informed as it may be. Also, I have not lived in Lebanon since 2006. But I did end up witnessing the 2008 street skirmish before moving on to Canada. and this tirade is directed at all non peace loving fools.
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